The Rain in Spain May Start Falling Here

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Editor’s Comment:

It is typical politics. You know the problem and the cause but you do nothing about the cause. You don’t fix it because you view your job in government as justifying the perks you get from private companies rather than reason the government even exists — to provide for the protection and welfare of the citizens of that society. It seems that the government of each country has become an entity itself with an allegiance but to itself leaving the people with no government at all.

And the average man in the streets of Boston or Barcelona cannot be fooled or confused any longer. Hollande in France was elected precisely because the people wanted a change that would align the government with the people, by the people and for the people. The point is not whether the people are right or wrong. The point is that we would rather make our own mistakes than let politicians make them for us in order to line their own pockets with gold.

Understating foreclosures and evictions, over stating recovery of the housing Market, lying about economic prospects is simply not covering it any more. The fact is that housing prices have dropped to all time lows and are continuing to drop. The fact is that we would rather kick people out of their homes on fraudulent pretenses and pay for homeless sheltering than keep people in their homes. We have a government that is more concerned with the profits of banks than the feeding and housing of its population. 

When will it end? Maybe never. But if it changes it will be the result of an outraged populace and like so many times before in history, the new aristocracy will have learned nothing from history. The cycle repeats.

Spain Underplaying Bank Losses Faces Ireland Fate

By Yalman Onaran

Spain is underestimating potential losses by its banks, ignoring the cost of souring residential mortgages, as it seeks to avoid an international rescue like the one Ireland needed to shore up its financial system.

The government has asked lenders to increase provisions for bad debt by 54 billion euros ($70 billion) to 166 billion euros. That’s enough to cover losses of about 50 percent on loans to property developers and construction firms, according to the Bank of Spain. There wouldn’t be anything left for defaults on more than 1.4 trillion euros of home loans and corporate debt. Taking those into account, banks would need to increase provisions by as much as five times what the government says, or 270 billion euros, according to estimates by the Centre for European Policy Studies, a Brussels-based research group. Plugging that hole would increase Spain’s public debt by almost 50 percent or force it to seek a bailout, following in the footsteps of Ireland, Greece and Portugal.

“How can you only talk about one type of real estate lending when more and more loans are going bad everywhere in the economy?” said Patrick Lee, a London-based analyst covering Spanish banks for Royal Bank of Canada. “Ireland managed to turn its situation around after recognizing losses much more aggressively and thus needed a bailout. I don’t see how Spain can do it without outside support.”

Double-Dip Recession

Spain, which yesterday took over Bankia SA, the nation’s third-largest lender, is mired in a double-dip recession that has driven unemployment above 24 percent and government borrowing costs to the highest level since the country adopted the euro. Investors are concerned that the Mediterranean nation, Europe’s fifth-largest economy with a banking system six times bigger than Ireland’s, may be too big to save.

In both countries, loans to real estate developers proved most toxic. Ireland funded a so-called bad bank to take much of that debt off lenders’ books, forcing writedowns of 58 percent. The government also required banks to raise capital to cover what was left behind, assuming expected losses of 7 percent for residential mortgages, 15 percent on the debt of small companies and 4 percent on that of larger corporations.

Spain’s banks face bigger risks than the government has acknowledged, even with lower default rates than Ireland experienced. If losses reach 5 percent of mortgages held by Spanish lenders, 8 percent of loans to small companies, 1.5 percent of those to larger firms and half the debt to developers, the cost will be about 250 billion euros. That’s three times the 86 billion euros Irish domestic banks bailed out by their government have lost as real estate prices tumbled.

Bankia Loans

Moody’s Investors Service, a credit-ratings firm, said it expects Spanish bank losses of as much as 306 billion euros. The Centre for European Policy Studies said the figure could be as high as 380 billion euros.

At the Bankia group, the lender formed in 2010 from a merger of seven savings banks, about half the 38 billion euros of real estate development loans held at the end of last year were classified as “doubtful” or at risk of becoming so, according to the company’s annual report. Bad loans across the Valencia-based group, which has the biggest Spanish asset base, reached 8.7 percent in December, and the firm renegotiated almost 10 billion euros of assets in 2011, about 5 percent of its loan book, to prevent them from defaulting.

The government, which came to power in December, announced yesterday that it will take control of Bankia with a 45 percent stake by converting 4.5 billion euros of preferred shares into ordinary stock. The central bank said the lender needs to present a stronger cleanup plan and “consider the contribution of public funds” to help with that.

Rajoy Measures

The Bank of Spain has lost its prestige for failing to supervise banks sufficiently, said Josep Duran i Lleida, leader of Catalan party Convergencia i Unio, which often backs Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy’s government. Governor Miguel Angel Fernandez Ordonez doesn’t need to resign at this point because his term expires in July, Duran said.

Rajoy has shied away from using public funds to shore up the banks, after his predecessor injected 15 billion euros into the financial system. He softened his position earlier this week following a report by the International Monetary Fund that said the country needs to clean up the balance sheets of “weak institutions quickly and adequately” and may need to use government funds to do so.

“The last thing I want to do is lend public money, as has been done in the past, but if it were necessary to get the credit to save the Spanish banking system, I wouldn’t renounce that,” Rajoy told radio station Onda Cero on May 7.

Santander, BBVA

Rajoy said he would announce new measures to bolster confidence in the banking system tomorrow, without giving details. He might ask banks to boost provisions by 30 billion euros, said a person with knowledge of the situation who asked not to be identified because the decision hadn’t been announced.

Spain’s two largest lenders, Banco Santander SA (SAN) and Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA (BBVA), earn most of their income outside the country and have assets in Latin America they can sell to raise cash if they need to bolster capital. In addition to Bankia, there are more than a dozen regional banks that are almost exclusively domestic and have few assets outside the country to sell to help plug losses.

In investor presentations, the Bank of Spain has said provisions for bad debt would cover losses of between 53 percent and 80 percent on loans for land, housing under construction and finished developments. An additional 30 billion euros would increase coverage to 56 percent of such loans, leaving nothing to absorb losses on 650 billion euros of home mortgages held by Spanish banks or 800 billion euros of company loans.

Housing Bubble

“Spain is constantly playing catch-up, so it’s always several steps behind,” said Nicholas Spiro, managing director of Spiro Sovereign Strategy, a consulting firm in London specializing in sovereign-credit risk. “They should have gone down the Irish route, bit the bullet and taken on the losses. Every time they announce a small new measure, the goal posts have already moved because of deterioration in the economy.”

Without aggressive writedowns, Spanish banks can’t access market funding and the government can’t convince investors its lenders can survive a contracting economy, said Benjamin Hesse, who manages five financial-stock funds at Fidelity Investments in Boston, which has $1.6 trillion under management.

Spanish banks have “a 1.7 trillion-euro loan book, one of the world’s largest, and they haven’t even started marking it,” Hesse said. “The housing bubble was twice the size of the U.S. in terms of peak prices versus 1990 prices. It’s huge. And there’s no way out for Spain.”

Irish Losses

House prices in Spain more than doubled in a decade and have dropped 30 percent since the first quarter of 2008. U.S. homes, which also doubled in value, have lost 35 percent. Ireland’s have fallen 49 percent after quadrupling.

Ireland injected 63 billion euros into its banks to recapitalize them after shifting property-development loans to the National Asset Management Agency, or NAMA, and requiring other writedowns. That forced the country to seek 68 billion euros in financial aid from the European Union and the IMF.

The losses of bailed-out domestic banks in Ireland have reached 21 percent of their total loans. Spanish banks have reserved for 6 percent of their lending books.

“The upfront loss recognition Ireland forced on the banks helped build confidence,” said Edward Parker, London-based head of European sovereign-credit analysis at Fitch Ratings. “In contrast, Spain has had a constant trickle of bad news about its banks, which doesn’t instill confidence.”

Mortgage Defaults

Spain’s home-loan defaults were 2.7 percent in December, according to the Spanish mortgage association. Home prices are propped up and default rates underreported because banks don’t want to recognize losses, according to Borja Mateo, author of “The Truth About the Spanish Real Estate Market.” Developers are still building new houses around the country, even with 2 million vacant homes.

Ireland’s mortgage-default rate was about 7 percent in 2010, before the government pushed for writedowns, with an additional 5 percent being restructured, according to the Central Bank of Ireland. A year later, overdue and restructured home loans reached 18 percent. At the typical 40 percent recovery rate, Irish banks stand to lose 11 percent of their mortgage portfolios, more than the 7 percent assumed by the central bank in its stress tests. That has led to concern the government may need to inject more capital into the lenders.

‘The New Ireland’

Spain, like Ireland, can’t simply let its financial firms fail. Ireland tried to stick banks’ creditors with losses and was overruled by the EU, which said defaulting on senior debt would raise the specter of contagion and spook investors away from all European banks. Ireland did force subordinated bondholders to take about 15 billion euros of losses.

The EU was protecting German and French banks, among the biggest creditors to Irish lenders, said Marshall Auerback, global portfolio strategist for Madison Street Partners LLC, a Denver-based hedge fund.

“Spain will be the new Ireland,” Auerback said. “Germany is forcing once again the socialization of its banks’ losses in a periphery country and creating sovereign risk, just like it did with Ireland.”

Spanish government officials and bank executives have downplayed potential losses on home loans by pointing to the difference between U.S. and Spanish housing markets. In the U.S., a lender’s only option when a borrower defaults is to seize the house and settle for whatever it can get from a sale. The borrower owes nothing more in this system, called non- recourse lending.

‘More Pressure’

In Spain, a bank can go after other assets of the borrower, who remains on the hook for the debt no matter what the price of the house when sold. Still, the same extended liability didn’t stop the Irish from defaulting on home loans as the economy contracted, incomes fell and unemployment rose to 14 percent.

“As the economy deteriorates, the quality of assets is going to get worse,” said Daragh Quinn, an analyst at Nomura International in Madrid. “Corporate loans are probably going to be a bigger worry than mortgages, but losses will keep rising. Some of the larger banks, in particular BBVA and Santander, will be able to generate enough profits to absorb this deterioration, but other purely domestic ones could come under more pressure.”

Spain’s government has said it wants to find private-sector solutions. Among those being considered are plans to let lenders set up bad banks and to sell toxic assets to outside investors.

Correlation Risk

Those proposals won’t work because third-party investors would require bigger discounts on real estate assets than banks will be willing to offer, RBC’s Lee said.

Spanish banks face another risk, beyond souring loans: They have been buying government bonds in recent months. Holdings of Spanish sovereign debt by lenders based in the country jumped 32 percent to 231 billion euros in the four months ended in February, data from Spain’s treasury show.

That increases the correlation of risk between banks and the government. If Spain rescues its lenders, the public debt increases, threatening the sovereign’s solvency. When Greece restructured its debt, swapping bonds at a 50 percent discount, Greek banks lost billions of euros and had to be recapitalized by the state, which had to borrow more from the EU to do so.

In a scenario where Spain is forced to restructure its debt, even a 20 percent discount could spell almost 50 billion euros of additional losses for the country’s banks.

“Spain will have to turn to the EU for funds to solve its banking problem,” said Madison Street’s Auerback. “But there’s little money left after the other bailouts, so what will Spain get? That’s what worries everybody.”

INDYMAC EXECS SUED BY THE FDIC

Well you have to give credit to Sheila Baer> She gets it. Here she is going after the IndyMac executives for making loans to developers that they knew would not be repaid. It is the first time that an important agency has recognized the link between the malfeasance of the originating lenders, the securitization intermediaries and the developers.

It is central to the issue of appraisal fraud. Anyone who moved into a new development knows that the developer was raising prices like crazy to create a a sense of urgency on the part of borrowers. Those prices from the developers were used an excuse to inflate the appraisals ona continual basis, so that a house of exactly the same model and features would be appraised one month for $350,000 and then a month later for $375,000 or more.

The developers knew they could do this because they knew the “lender” would approve it. It was a classic dysfunctional dance in which everyone was lying to everyone else. And everyone, except the borrower and the investor-lender knew it. Thus suits against the developer, especially those with mortgage offices on premises, can be expected to rise by both private actions and public actions from regulatory agencies and law enforcement. It was fraud.

INDYMAC EXECS SUED BY THE FDIC
Posted on July 13, 2010 by Foreclosureblues
latimes.com/business/la-fi-indymac-fdic-20100714,0,4893259.story

latimes.com
FDIC sues four former IndyMac executives
The agency accuses the managers of the defunct bank’s Homebuilder
Division of acting negligently by granting loans to developers who
were unlikely to repay the debts.
By E. Scott Reckard, Los Angeles Times

July 14, 2010

Launching a new offensive against leaders of failed financial
institutions, federal regulators are accusing four former executives
of Pasadena’s defunct IndyMac Bank of granting loans to developers and
home builders who were unlikely to repay the debts.

The lawsuit by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. alleges that the
IndyMac executives acted negligently and seeks $300 million in
damages.

It is the first suit of its kind brought by the FDIC in connection
with the spate of more than 250 bank failures that began in 2008.
Regulators said it wouldn’t be the last.

“Clearly we’ll have more of these cases,” said Rick Osterman, the
deputy general counsel who oversees litigation at the agency.

The FDIC has sent letters warning hundreds of top managers and
directors at failed banks — and the insurers who provided them with
liability coverage — of possible civil lawsuits, Osterman said. The
letters go out early in investigations of failed banks, he added, to
ensure that the insurers will later provide coverage even if the
policy expires.

The four defendants in the FDIC lending negligence case, who operated
the Homebuilder Division at IndyMac, collectively approved 64 loans
that are described in the 309-page lawsuit.

They are:

•Scott Van Dellen, the division’s president and chief executive during
six years ending in its seizure;

•Richard Koon, its chief lending officer for five years ending in July 2006;

•Kenneth Shellem, its chief credit officer for five years ending in
November 2006;

•William Rothman, its chief lending officer during the two years
before the seizure.

Through their attorneys, they vigorously denied the allegations.

“The FDIC has unfairly selected four hard-working executives of a
small division of the bank … to blame for the failure of IndyMac,”
said defense attorney Kirby Behre, who represents Shellem and Koon.
“We intend to show that these loans were done at all times with a
great deal of care and prudence.”

Defense attorney Michael Fitzgerald, who represents Van Dellen and
Rothman, said no one at the company or its regulators foresaw the
severity of the housing crash before it struck, and that IndyMac was
one of the first construction lenders to pull back when trouble struck
the industry in 2007.

Fitzgerald added that the FDIC thought Van Dellen trustworthy enough
that it kept him on to run the division after the bank was seized.

The suit naming the IndyMac executives was filed this month in federal
court in Los Angeles, two years after the July 2008 failure of the
Pasadena savings and loan. The bank is now operated under new
ownership as OneWest Bank.

IndyMac, principally a maker of adjustable-rate mortgages, was among a
series of high-profile bank failures early in the financial crisis
that were blamed on defaults on high-risk home loans and the
securities linked to them.

But the majority of failures since then have been at banks hammered by
losses on commercial real estate, particularly loans to residential
developers and builders — and IndyMac had a sideline in that business
as well through its Homebuilder Division.

The suit alleges that IndyMac’s compensation policies prompted the
home-building division to increase lending to developers and builders
with little regard for the quality of the loans.

“HBD’s management pushed to grow loan production despite their
awareness that a significant downturn in the market was imminent and
despite warnings from IndyMac’s upper management about the likelihood
of a market decline,” the FDIC said in its complaint.

An investigation of IndyMac’s residential mortgage lending practices
could lead to another civil suit, potentially naming higher-up
executives, attorneys involved in the case said.

Separately, a criminal grand jury investigation into the actions of
IndyMac executives continues, according to a knowledgeable federal
official who was not authorized to publicly discuss the investigation.

The bank, known mostly for providing home loans without requiring
proof of income from borrowers, had operated its builder-loan division
since 1994.

The lawsuit said IndyMac had about $900 million in land acquisition,
development and construction loans on its books when the bank
collapsed. Losses on the portfolio are expected to total $500 million
— minus whatever the FDIC can recover through litigation.

The FDIC’s Osterman said the government recovered about $5.1 billion
from former bank and thrift executives and their outside professional
advisors after the last major financial crisis devastated the savings
and loan industry in the 1980s. Most of the money came from insurers
that had written policies covering bank directors and officers against
negligence or other misdeeds.

Because the warnings of possible lawsuits are mailed out during the
early stages of investigations, it’s frequently decided later that the
cases aren’t strong enough to bring or aren’t likely to be
cost-effective and so are dropped, Osterman said.

FDIC spokesman David Barr said the agency generally had three years
from the date of a failure to file civil cases.

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