APPRAISAL FRAUD IN DETAIL

Posted on May 11, 2010 by Neil Garfield

APPRAISAL FRAUD IS THE ACT OF GIVING A RATING OR VALUE TO A HOME THAT IS WRONG — AND THE APPRAISER KNOWS IT IS WRONG. This can’t be performed in a vacuum because there are so many players who are involved. They ALL must be complicit in the deceit leading to the homeowner signing on the the bottom line and advancing his home as collateral on a loan which at the very beginning is theft of most of the value of the home. It’s like those credit cards they send to people who are financially challenged. $300 credit, no questions asked. And then you get a bill for $297 including fees and insurance. So you end up not with a credit line of $300, but a liability of $300 just for signing your name. It’s a game to the “lenders” because they are not using their own money.

And remember, the legal responsibility for the appraisal is directly with the appraiser, the appraisal company (which usually has errors and omissions insurance) and the named lender in your closing documents. The named “lender” is, according to Federal Law, required to verify the value of the property.

How many of them , if they were using their own money, would blithely accept a $300,000 appraisal on a home that was worth $200,000 last month and will be worth $200,000 next month? You are entitled to rely on the appraisal and the “verification” by the “lender” (see Truth in Lending Act and Reg Z). The whole reason the law is structured that way is because THEY know and YOU don’t. THEY have access to the information and YOU don’t. This is a complex transaction that THEY understand and YOU don’t.

A false appraisal steals money from you because you rely on it to make the deal for refinancing or for the purchase. You think the home is worth $300,000 and so you agree to buy a loan product that puts you in debt for $290,000. But the house is worth $200,000. You just lost $90,000 plus closing costs and a variety of other expenses, especially if you are moving into anew home that requires all kinds of additions like window treatments etc. But the “lender” who is really just a front for the Wall Street and the investor pool that funded the loan, made out like bandits. Yield spread premiums, extra fees, profits, rebates, kickbacks to the developer, the appraiser, the mortgage broker, the title agency, the closing agent, the real estate broker, trustee(s) the investment banking entities that were used in the securitization of your loan, amount in some cases to MORE THAN YOUR LOAN. No wonder they are so anxious to get your signature.

“Comparable” means reference to time, nearby geography, and physical attributes of the home and lot. Here are SOME of the more obvious indicators of appraisal fraud:

  1. Your home is worth 40% of the appraisal amount.
  2. The appraisal used add-ons from the developer that were marked up for the home buyer but which nobody in the secondary market will pay. That kitchen you paid an extra $10,000 for “extras” is included in your appraisal but has no value to anyone else. That’s not an appraisal and it isn’t collateral or fair market value.
  3. The homes in the immediate vicinity of your home were selling for less than your home appraisal when they had the same attributes.
  4. The homes in the immediate vicinity of your home were selling for less than your home appraisal just a few weeks or months before.
  5. The value of your home was significantly less just a  few weeks or months after the closing.
  6. You are underwater: this means you owe more on your obligation than your house is worth. Current estimates are that it might take 20 years or more for home prices to reach the level of mortgages, and that is WITH inflation.
  7. Negative amortization loans usually allow the principal to rise even above the falsely inflated appraisal amount. If that happened, then they knew at the time of the loan that even if the appraisal was not inflated, it still would not be worth the amount of the principal due on the obligation. For example, if your loan is $290,000 and the interest is $25,000 per year, but you were only required to pay $1,000 per month for the first three years, then your Principal was going up by $13,000 per year compounded. So that $300,000 appraisal doesn’t cover the $39,000+ that would be added to your principal balance. The balance at the end of 3 years will be over $330,000 on property APPRAISED at $300,000. No honest appraiser, mortgage broker, or lender, would be complicit in such an arrangement unless they were paid handsomely to do it and they had no risk because they were not using their own money for the loan.

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Credit Card Companies geting tougher? FIGHT BACK with securitization defenses!

Posted on April 2, 2010 by Neil Garfield

See the thing about the arrogance of these non-bank and bank financial institutions is they are rushing to get under the wire before the truth is revealed: they are not the creditor and they never were. Send your debt validation letters and don’t let them sue without filing a motion to dismiss the same as the foreclosure actions. They have nothing. They are just pretender lenders just like the mortgage companies.

Filed under: bubble, CDO, CORRUPTION, currency, foreclosure, GTC | Honor, Investor, Mortgage, securities fraud | Tagged: , , , , , , , , | 19 Comments »

Principal Reduction: A Step Forward by BofA, Wells Fargo

Posted on March 29, 2010 by Neil Garfield

Editor’s Note: Better late than never. It is a step in the right direction, but 30% reduction is not likely to do the job, and waiting for mortgages to become delinquent is simply kicking the can down the road.

The political argument of a “gift” to these homeowners is bogus. They are legally entitled to the reduction because they were defrauded by false appraisals and predatory loan practices — fueled by the simple fact that the worse the loan the more money Wall Street made. For every $1,000,000 Wall Street took from investors/creditors they only funded around $650,000 in mortgages. If the borrowers performed — i.e., made their payments, Wall Street would have had to explain why they only had 2/3 of the investment to give back to the creditor in principal. If it failed, they made no explanation and made extra money on credit default swap bets against the mortgage.

For every loan that is subject to principal reduction, there is an investor who is absorbing the loss. Yet the new mortgage is in favor of the the same parties owning and operating investment banks that created the original fraud on investors and homeowners. THIS IS NO GIFT. IT IS JUSTICE.

—-EXCERPTS FROM ARTICLE (FULL ARTICLE BELOW)—–

New York Times

Policy makers have been hoping the housing market would improve before any significant principal reduction program was needed. But with the market faltering again, those wishes seem to have been in vain.

Substantial pressure came from Massachusetts, which won a significant suit last year against Fremont Investment and Loan, a subprime lender. The Supreme Judicial Court ruled that some of Fremont’s loans were “presumptively unfair.” That gave the state a legal precedent to pursue Countrywide.
The threat of a stick may be helping banks to realize that principal write-downs are in their ultimate self-interest. The Bank of America program was announced simultaneously with the news that the lender had reached a settlement with the state of Massachusetts over claims of predatory lending.

The percentage of modifications that included some type of principal reduction more than quadrupled in the first nine months of last year, to 13.2 percent from 3.1 percent, according to regulators.

Wells Fargo, for instance, said it had cut $2.6 billion off the amount owed on 50,000 severely troubled loans it acquired when it bought Wachovia.

March 24, 2010

Bank of America to Reduce Mortgage Balances

By DAVID STREITFELD and LOUISE STORY

Bank of America said on Wednesday that it would begin forgiving some mortgage debt in an effort to keep distressed borrowers from losing their homes.

The program, while limited in scope and available by invitation only, signals a significant shift in efforts to deal with the millions of homeowners who are facing foreclosure. It comes as banks are being urged by the White House, members of Congress and community groups to do more to stem the tide.

The Obama administration is also studying whether to provide more help to people who owe more on their mortgages than their homes are worth.

Bank of America’s program may increase the pressure on other big banks to offer more help for delinquent borrowers, while potentially angering homeowners who have kept up their payments and are not getting such aid.

As the housing market shows signs of possibly entering another downturn, worries about foreclosure are growing. With the volume of sales falling, prices are sliding again. When the gap increases between the size of a mortgage and the value that the home could fetch in a sale, owners tend to give up.

Cutting the size of the debt over a period of years, however, might encourage people to stick around. That could save homes from foreclosure and stabilize neighborhoods.

“Banks are willing to take some losses now to avoid much greater losses later if the housing market continues to spiral, and that’s a sea change from where they were a year ago,” said Howard Glaser, a housing consultant in Washington and former government regulator.

The threat of a stick may be helping banks to realize that principal write-downs are in their ultimate self-interest. The Bank of America program was announced simultaneously with the news that the lender had reached a settlement with the state of Massachusetts over claims of predatory lending.

The program is aimed at borrowers who received subprime or other high-risk loans from Countrywide Financial, the biggest and one of the most aggressive lenders during the housing boom. Bank of America bought Countrywide in 2008.

Bank of America officials said the maximum reduction would be 30 percent of the value of the loan. They said the program would work this way: A borrower might owe, say, $250,000 on a house whose value has fallen to $200,000. Fifty thousand dollars of that balance would be moved into a special interest-free account.

As long as the owner continued to make payments on the $200,000, $10,000 in the special account would be forgiven each year until either the balance was zero or the housing market had recovered and the borrower once again had positive equity.

“Modifications are better than foreclosure,” Jack Schakett, a Bank of America executive, said in a media briefing. “The time has come to test this kind of program.”

That was the original notion behind the government’s own modification program, which was intended to help millions of borrowers. It has actually resulted in permanently modified loans for fewer than 200,000 homeowners.

The government program, which emphasizes reductions in interest rates but not in principal owed, was strongly criticized on Wednesday by the inspector general of the Troubled Asset Relief Program for overpromising and underdelivering.

“The program will not be a long-term success if large amounts of borrowers simply redefault and end up facing foreclosure anyway,” the inspector general, Neil M. Barofsky, wrote in his report. One possible reason is that even if they get mortgage help, many borrowers are still loaded down by other kinds of debt like credit cards.

Bank of America said its new program would initially help about 45,000 Countrywide borrowers — a fraction of the 1.2 million Bank of America homeowners who are in default. The total amount of principal reduced, it estimated, would be $3 billion.

The bank said it would reach out to delinquent borrowers whose mortgage balance was at least 20 percent greater than the value of the house. These people would then have to demonstrate a hardship like a loss of income.

These requirements will, the bank hopes, restrain any notion that it is offering easy bailouts to those who might otherwise be able to pay. “The customers who will get this offer really can’t afford their mortgage,” Mr. Schakett said.

Early reaction to the program was mixed.

“It is certainly a step in the right direction,” said Alan M. White, an assistant professor at Valparaiso University School of Law who has studied the government’s modification program.

But Steve Walsh, a mortgage broker in Scottsdale, Ariz., who said he had just abandoned his house and several rental properties, called the program “another Band-Aid. It probably would not have prevented me from walking away.”

Even before Bank of America’s announcement, reducing loan balances was growing in favor as a strategy to deal with the housing mess. The percentage of modifications that included some type of principal reduction more than quadrupled in the first nine months of last year, to 13.2 percent from 3.1 percent, according to regulators.

Few of these mortgages were owned by the government or private investors, however. Banks tended to cut principal only on mortgages they owned directly. Wells Fargo, for instance, said it had cut $2.6 billion off the amount owed on 50,000 severely troubled loans it acquired when it bought Wachovia.

Bank of America said it would be offering principal reduction for several types of exotic loans. Some of the eligible loans are held in the bank’s portfolio, but the program will also apply to some loans owned by investors for which Bank of America is merely the manager.

The bank developed the program partly because of “pressure from everyone,” Mr. Schakett said. Even the investors who owned the loans were saying “maybe we should be doing more,” he said.

Substantial pressure came from Massachusetts, which won a significant suit last year against Fremont Investment and Loan, a subprime lender. The Supreme Judicial Court ruled that some of Fremont’s loans were “presumptively unfair.” That gave the state a legal precedent to pursue Countrywide.

“We were prepared to bring suit against Bank of America if we had not been able to reach this remedy today, which we have been looking for for a long time,” said the Massachusetts attorney general, Martha Coakley.

Bank of America agreed to a settlement on Wednesday with Ms. Coakley that included a $4.1 million payment to the state.

Reducing principal is widely endorsed, in theory, as a cure for foreclosures. The trouble is, no one wants to absorb the costs.

When the administration announced a housing assistance program in the five hardest-hit states last month, officials explicitly opened the door to principal forgiveness. Despite reservations expressed by the Treasury, the White House and Housing and Urban Development officials have continued to study debt forgiveness in areas with lots of so-called underwater homes, according to two people with knowledge of the matter.

On a national scale, such a program risks a political firestorm if the banks are unable to finance all the losses themselves. Regulators like the comptroller of the currency and the Federal Reserve have been focused on maintaining the banks’ capital levels, which could be hurt by large-scale debt forgiveness.

“You have to be very careful not to design a program that would change people’s fundamental behavior across the country in a destabilizing way or would be widely perceived as unfair to people who are continuing to pay,” Michael S. Barr, an assistant secretary of the Treasury, said early this year.

Policy makers have been hoping the housing market would improve before any significant principal reduction program was needed. But with the market faltering again, those wishes seem to have been in vain.

Bank of America’s announcement came within hours of a fresh report that underscored the renewed weakness. Sales and prices are dropping, leaving even more homeowners underwater.

Sales of new homes fell in February to their lowest point since the figures were first collected in 1963, the Commerce Department said. Sales are about a quarter of what they were in 2003, before the housing boom began in earnest.

“It’s shocking,” said Brad Hunter, an analyst with the market researcher Metrostudy. “No one would ever have imagined it would go this low.”

Filed under: bubble, CDO, CORRUPTION, currency, Eviction, expert witness, foreclosure, Forensic Analysis Workshop, GTC | Honor, Investor, MODIFICATION, Mortgage, Motion Practice and Discovery, securities fraud, Securitization Survey, Servicer, STATUTES, workshop | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 14 Comments »

Wave of Voluntary Strategic Defaults Coming: 20% Under water

Posted on February 10, 2010 by Neil Garfield

Editorial Comment: Actually the number is far higher. We compute it as around 45% when all is said and done. First of all there is consensus that property values are actually around 15% less than seller’s are asking. Second costs of selling the home makes up the rest, taking another 6-10% off the selling proceeds.

The break point where people go for “jingle mail” sending the keys back even if they are current is when that value is less than 75% of the principal due on the mortgage. In that sense, the 1/5 figure is right.

What has NOT been computed is what will happen if the growing trend toward strategic defaults (jingle mail) becomes a stampede. I think it will do just that — and further the trend will probably spread to other loans, especially those have been securitized like credit cards, auto loans, and student loans where the loan originator never advanced a penny toward the loan and just collected a large fee.

Investors and borrowers need to get together and work out the details, throwing the loss onto the “banksters” (Pecora term from 1930’s). Disinformation is being spread and believed. The creditors and the debtors are being intentionally blocked from knowing their relationship to each other. When they DO know, the ship will turn back over and start floating again — at the cost of those who perpetrated the largest fraud in human history.

There IS a way to work this out but not if the goal is to save the banks that created this mess. We have at least 7,000 other banks, TARP and other bailout money available, and an IT infrastructure that can be used today to provide the full range of services and conveniences that the “too big to fail” banks use to beat down the competition from community banks and credit unions.

Associations of community banks not controlled by large regional banks can play a pivotal role in this. Where the associations are controlled by the big banks like Florida bankers Association, the community bankers need to re-start their own association.

————————————————–

One-Fifth of U.S. Homeowners Owe More Than Properties Are Worth

By Daniel Taub

Feb. 10 (Bloomberg) — More than a fifth of U.S. homeowners owed more than their properties were worth in the fourth quarter as the number of houses and condominiums lost to foreclosure climbed to a record, according to Zillow.com.

In the fourth quarter, 21.4 percent of owners of mortgaged homes were underwater, up from 21 percent in the previous three months and down from 23 percent in the second quarter, the Seattle-based real estate data provider said today in a report. More than one in 1,000 homes were repossessed by lenders in December, the highest rate in Zillow data dating back to 2000.

Underwater homes are more likely lost to foreclosure because their owners have a harder time refinancing or selling when they get behind on loan payments. U.S. home values dropped 5 percent in the fourth quarter from a year earlier, the 12th straight quarter of year-over-year declines, Zillow said.

“While the next few months are likely to bring further home value declines in most markets, we do expect to see a national bottom in home prices by the middle of this year,” Zillow Chief Economist Stan Humphries said in a statement. “Thereafter, home values are likely to bounce along the bottom with real appreciation remaining negligible for some time.”

There were 2.82 million foreclosures in the U.S. last year, according to RealtyTrac Inc., the most since the data provider began compiling figures in 2005. The number may rise to 3 million in 2010, the Irvine, California-based company said last month.

Bank sales of foreclosed properties accounted for a fifth of all U.S. home sales in December, Zillow said. Such transactions made up 68 percent of sales in Merced, California; 64 percent in the Las Vegas area; and 62 percent in Modesto, California, the company said.

Almost 29 percent of homes sold in the U.S. went for less than their sellers originally paid for them, Zillow said.

The closely held company uses data from public records going back to 1996. Its mortgage figures come from information filed with individual counties.

To contact the reporter on this story: Daniel Taub in Los Angeles at dtaub@bloomberg.net.

Last Updated: February 10, 2010 00:01 EST

Filed under: bubble, CDO, CORRUPTION, currency, Eviction, foreclosure, GTC | Honor, Investor, Mortgage, securities fraud | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 14 Comments »

Irrational Economics: What You Should know About Money

Posted on April 10, 2008 by Neil Garfield

Gambling establishments know it, amusement parks know it, retailers know it — anything that separates your perception of spending your own money from the reality results in your spending more. And in the case of the American consumer, we are spending consistently more than we earn and more than we could ever pay back. 

 

We are all participating in a Ponzi scheme, relying on the next influx of credit from our home, credit card, auto loan or other lending scheme to pay the minimum payment on past debts. Meanwhile when we use chips at the gambling casino, we are not spending “money” so we spend more of it. When we use credit cards, we are not spending “money” so we spend more of it. When we use debit cards, we are not spending money so we spend more of it.

 

The result is that we walk out of the casino either broke or possibly in financial ruin. We get the credit card bill at the end of the month and we didn’t realize how much we spent. We see “over-limit” fees, late fees, and all kinds of interest and fee items that result in a “minimum payment” that is guaranteed to keep us in debt for life. We get our bank statement at the end of the month and for the 20% of us who even look at it, we get the same surprise — we spent more than we realized using our debit card, in stores and on the internet. We borrow on our home equity credit lines and increase our monthly payments to a level that is out of reach, or in the case of most Americans, to a level that is simply more out of reach that before (what’s the difference, I can’t pay it anyway).

 

For those of you who revel in conspiracy theory, here is one that is true. The deck is stacked against everyone by a tacit agreement between government and business. They want us stupid and ignorant. The Government, the retailers, the gaming establishments, the banks, the banking networks, non-bank credit card issuers and others on the receiving side of the dollars you spend all want you to avoid paying actual cash. Because they know that if you have cash in your hand you will regard it as yours, as you will be less inclined to part with it. They know that at the end of the month, if you are spending actual currency, you will be the one with money in your pocket and not them. 

 

Millions of Americans are steadily increasing their spending on credit cards, because they have no other place to go for the money to pay for their normal monthly bills — groceries, utilities, etc. Many are taking down the full amount of their home equity lines of credit for fear that these sources of credit will be frozen — a trend that is growing in the industry. People are taking this money and socking it away in investment accounts, which I hope are in Euro’s because the dollar is going to continue taking a major hit and inflation, while it is a global problem, is headed for far worse territory than most other places on the planet. 

 

The United States is a place of negative savings (i.e., debt) from top (Federal government) to bottom (you). And nobody is going to help you or your children or grandchildren because all the players have a vested interest in lying to you, misleading you and encouraging you to look at your finances as something other than your future wealth and security. If you are looking for help, look only to yourself and your family members. Get yourselves together and decide on how you are going to navigate the this mess. 

 

Here are some tips that will help:

 

  1. If you must use credit cards to “make the month” then you are headed for a disaster. So plan for the disaster instead of burying your head in the sand. Get one card that you bring the balance down to zero and use it sparingly, making payments exactly on time and allowing the revolving credit option to be used. So you don’t want to pay the card in full each month, you want to pay it in two or three months. Get a new telephone line and give out the number to your friends. Put the old line on voice mail and unplug it, because the creditors are going to be calling. If you don’t hear the call, it will be less stress. Most card companies do not sue, they hound you through collection agencies. So don’t enter into payment  arrangements with them, and don’t use bankruptcy just because you piled up credit card debt. 
  2. For Debt that you already have incurred and will incur in the near future, keep this in mind. You can game the system just like they have gamed you.  Inflation normally is not a  major factor in long term debt. But it is now. If you put off paying the debt, whether it is fixed or revolving, as long as possible, it is VERY possible that inflation will outpace the interest charges. There is no guarantee on this, but at this moment it looks highly probable. So if you pay these debts in 3-5 years it might cost you a fraction of the VALUE of what you owe now. 
  3. Pay in cash for the things you are buying if at all possible. It will keep you focussed on what you are spending and if you put the known expenses in envelopes at the beginning of the month, you will still have money at the end of the month.
  4. Your mortgage or rent payment takes priority. if that means not paying a credit card, so be it. Keep your house. It is the one non-dollar denominated asset you have. It is your inflation hedge.
  5. If you can’t pay the minimum on the credit card, don’t pay it at all. It doesn’t make any difference.
  6. Credit card payments should be the last thing on your list to pay after food, housing, medical etc. 
  7. If you think you are headed for bankruptcy try to hold out until the next congress gets to work. It is highly probable that the Republican changes will be reversed and that the old rules will return along with higher exemptions. 
  8. If you can’t get to an ATM to withdraw the cash and spend cash, then  use the debit card and your PIN, knowing that this is coming out of your bank account. But remember that each time you use that plastic card, you are one step removed from the financial decision as to whether to spend. The one who ends up holding the bag is you.
  9. Take advantage of credit card balance transfers with zero interest wherever you can. Play the game. 
  10.  If you owe taxes, make some minimum payment that you choose arbitrarily. Don’t enter into an agreement or make contact with the IRS unless they contact you.
  11.  If you are falling behind in your mortgage or under stress, don’t wait until the breaking point. Call your mortgage company NOW and tell them you need an accommodation. Get a moratorium on part or all of the payments. Even skipping one payment might make all the difference in the world.
  12.  Do NOT overdraft your account and do NOT go for a payday loan. There is NO benefit for you to do either. Both put you in the hole deeper. Work out something with your utility, borrow from a relative (AND PAY IT BACK!), but don’t go for these short-term options. All they do is take more money out of your pocket. 
  13.  If your credit score is very high, but YOU know you are headed for disaster, then get as many cards as you can and use them judiciously, keeping in mind the above. If you are screwed anyway, the amount does not make any difference. 
  14.  GAME THE SYSTEM: Think of your own ways to “Create” money or money supply in your life. Have Plan B for when you lose that job — what business could you get into on your own that takes very little money to start and which will give you SOME income. Look around and see what people need. You’d be surprised at what people are willing to pay for if it involves making their life easier, or making something convenient — like shopping for seniors etc.
  15.  Eat Healthy and exercise: It will reduce your stress level and bring more oxygen and nutrients to your brain. You are going to need your brain for everything it is worth to game the system and escape from the trap that was paid for you and the rest of us. 

 

These tips are contrary to what you will hear from Suze Orman and other people. They are controversial. While I believe this is the best advice, I could be wrong. Use your own brain and when you consult with others remember the 80-20 rule. 80% of the people you ask, don’t know much and will give you stock answers. Those are the people that will end up broke when this is all over. But by all means seek out the smartest people you know and talk about these things. 

Filed under: ATM, CDO, community banks, credit unions, currency, education, Eviction, foreclosure, foreign relations, GTC | Honor, healthcare, inflation, interest rates, Investor, medical insurance, Medical Treatment, Mortgage, politics | Tagged: , , , , , | 12 Comments »

Mortgage Meltdown + Inflation + Dollar Devaluation

Posted on April 8, 2008 by Neil Garfield

Trouble for American Consumer is building and the perfect storm threatens our tenuous economy. 

DEEP RECESSION LOOMS WITHOUT FUNDAMENTAL CHANGE IN OUR POLITICS AND ECONOMIC POLICIES

 

The inevitable outcome was always the same: eventually we would hit the the top, like in any Ponzi scheme. 

Consumers, who maxed out their credit cards, and maxed out their borrowing on their homes, and maxed out on their purchasing power which has declined significantly over the same 25 year period, and who are vastly unemployed or underemployed (further decreasing their wages and purchasing power), and maxed out their borrowing from consumer finance, and even maxed out their short-term borrowing through pay day lending and overdraft privileges and eliminated their savings plans, have reached the point where (1) they can’t buy anymore “stuff” and (2) they don’t want to. 

 

The end result is that we have spent ourselves and our country into a hole, diminished our standing in the world, and we continue to insult the world by asserting a dominance that was once real, but isn’t anymore. And the world is telling us as politely as possible to shove it. 

The strength of the Euro, the movement amongst the oil producing countries to create a unitary currency for the Gulf countries and other trends around the globe all spell the same thing: everyone is looking for an alternative to the U.S. dollar and an alternative to the U.S. altogether. We have brought ourselves and the world to neither peace nor prosperity, and neither security nor safety. 

 

Asian inflation which is gearing up to be as bad as we have seen in any emerging economy is starting to hit wholesale prices. Rising costs due to rampant and growing inflation in countries that had before been “cheap” producers is hitting hard on products purchased here in the U.S. 

 

Add to that the more or less daily devaluation of the dollar and the effect is multiplied. Add to that mixture the further devaluation of the dollar caused by the mortgage meltdown where central bankers are converting their dollar reserves to Euros and the effect is further increased.

 

The headlines in most papers is the end of the free ride we had for a long time where the dollar was king and we could purchase imports more cheaply because dollars were in great demand. 

Our headline here is that we are headed for the deepest recession since the greatest depression. 

 

The reasons are many but all fairly simple. The United States converted from being a nation of production to a nation of consumption. The final nail in the coffin of this unfortunate conversion was the advent of credit cards — not at their inception — and the high interest rates that were institutionalized during the double digit prime rate days 25 years ago. The theory was that the credit card companies were under hardship because it cost them more to get capital to lend than they could get under usury laws, once you factored in defaults and the extremely high interest rates that the issuers had to pay. But when rates went back down to modest figures of around 7% prime rate from highs of 22% credit card companies were allowed to keep their rates at 21-22% and eventually raised those rates to as high as 35%. Adding insult, the issuers now have fee schedules that add to the absurd payments. 

 

This “free money” craze coupled with stupendous profits earned by credit card issuers caused a huge but temporary surge in consumer sending encouraged by government, business and lenders. Everyone liked it because for consumers they were getting more “stuff”, for government they could claim better economic performance, and for credit card companies, they had a stranglehold on an economy that was now addicted to credit card and home equity loan consumer spending. As with the mortgage meltdown, nobody thought it through. 

 

Our economy became addicted to, dependent on and under the control of consumer spending, which up till now has accounted for around 70% of our entire economy.

 

The inevitable outcome was always the same: eventually we would hit the the top, like in any Ponzi scheme. Consumers, who maxed out their credit cards, and maxed out their borrowing on their homes, and maxed out on their purchasing power which has declined significantly over the same 25 year period, and who are vastly unemployed or underemployed further decreasing their wages and purchasing power, and maxed out their borrowing from consumer finance, and even maxed out their short-term borrowing through pay day lending and overdraft privileges and eliminated their savings plans, have reached the point where (1) they can’t buy anymore “stuff” and (2) they don’t want to.

 

Alan Greenspan is now defending his record of relying on the marketplace to work things out. Free market ideologies, like the one Greenspan relied on, are like all other theories in economics. They seem to work for a while and then they don’t. Ideology does not govern how people act. People act as they choose to and the way they choose is based upon mostly subjective factors at the time of their decision. That is a lot messier than the neat and clean theories and policies, indexes and measurements that have been used in determining economic policy, foreign policy, and domestic agendas for decades. 

The underlying flaw in all currently used economic theory is that people are not theoretical. They are real and they are complex. 

This is not a new observation. Plenty of brilliant analysts and thinkers have known this for thousands of years. Just look at some of the most recent contributions from Rothbard and von Mises and you’ll see that the idea that human motivation and human thought process as the real issue has been around for a very long time, well understood, and pointing toward policy mechanisms that were based in reality rather than the mythical world where everyone behaves according to the “plan.” 

 

The problem is that economics and politics are inseparable — like time and space. You cannot define one without reference to the other. And in politics, the goal is to get elected and stay in power. You are playing to an audience with precious little time to get the finer points of economics, personal finance and monetary policy. 

 

People are too busy trying to make ends meet, getting the kids off to school and after-school activities, and working a two-income family schedule with increasingly longer working hours. Up until now, buying “stuff” has been a recreational outlet and they had the “free money” to do it. Now they can’t even pay the “minimum payment” without borrowing more and they can’t borrow more.

 

You don’t get elected giving people bad news — especially the news that things will get worse before they get better. So politicians create agencies to give them reports, indexes, median incomes, and unemployment data that provides them a reference point from which to pontificate about things these “leaders” actually know nothing about. They create slogans and “programs” that will never happen to give the potential voter a reason for putting them or keeping them in office. 

 

The end result is that we have spent ourselves and our country into a hole, diminished our standing in the world, and we continue to insult the world by asserting a dominance that was once real, but isn’t anymore. And the world is telling us as politely as possible to shove it. The strength of the Euro, the movement amongst the oil producing countries to create a unitary currency for the Gulf countries and other trends around the globe all spell the same thing: everyone is looking for an alternative to the U.S. dollar and an alternative to the U.S. altogether. We have brought ourselves and the world to neither peace nor prosperity, and neither security nor safety. 

WHAT DO WE DO? BITE THE BULLET, GIVE UP IDEOLOGY AND GET REAL

If you want to stop the mortgage and credit crisis, go with Barney Frank’s plan which takes blame out of the equation and simply stops the worst from happening. It gives everyone an opportunity to recover and it is the only way to do it — taking everyone’s interest into account rather than one group over another. 

 

If you want to stop foreclosures and evictions, change the rules of civil procedure in each state and in federal bankruptcy court that enables cram-down procedures and mediated results that allow for the same outcome as Barney Frank’s plan. Home values were inflated far beyond fair market value. Everyone should share in the loss and everyone should share in the potential recovery. 

 

If you want to stop the health care crisis and the economic nightmare created for our citizens, take insurance out of the equation, wind down the current system and move relentlessly toward a single payer system that pays medical service providers well, does not subject them to liability for bad results, and gives them incentives to get their patients healthier. That is what other countries do and what we should do here. 

 

Eliminate the restrictions on so-called “alternative care.” Those protocols have been around a lot longer than allopathic medicine. End the hegemony of allopathic medicine, provide incentives for preventative lifestyles and care, and the costs of health care will drop like a stone while the prospects for a longer, productive, happier life will rise. Reinstate the basic pledge “First do no harm.”

 

If you want to create a country with solid economic foundation, we need savings. To create savings, people must have the financial resources to cover their expenses and set aside money for the future. Take credit card debt and other forms of predatory lending off the table. Change the “no end in sight” vision to a light at the end of the tunnel. Stop telling people to spend money when you know they don’t have it. All you are doing is making things worse when you could be leading them out of the darkness.

 

If you want an economy that has solid prospects and good earnings potential for its citizens and the country as a whole, change the direction of innovation from getting our own people to part with their money to buy “Stuff” and make innovation work to produce things the rest of the world values. In other words shift back from the consumer driven economy to production. The products might be the same, similar or entirely different as before. 

 

BRING BACK UNIONS: Stop trying to minimize costs and start working to maximize revenues. Anyone can eliminate their costs by simply going out of business. A business is worthless without growth and strength in the marketplace. By eliminating our production capacity, we have effectively relinquished our sovereignty. Have government intervene wherever necessary to prevent dominance that results in imbalance — encourage the start-up of new small businesses and create a level playing field for them to compete. 

 

If you want to reassert America’s place in the world give the world a reason to respect and honor us besides our military power. Raw power is a transient commodity. Eventually it ends. If you want to retain sovereignty over our economic affairs and avoid becoming a satellite of China or a junior member of the European Union then demonstrate the power of the American worker and the attractiveness of living and working here. 

 

If you want communities to prosper allow community banks and credit unions the same access to providing financial services as the megabanks, where centralization has shifted local deposits into faraway investments of dubious value to anyone. State and Federal programs should be deposited into local banks rather than national or international combines. The infrastructure already exists without any changes required to enable this to happen. What is necessary is for State regulatory authority to become more active and more focussed on their own State’s economy.

 

As the song goes, these are a few of my favorite things. What are yours?

Filed under: alternative medicine, bubble, CDO, Chelation, community banks, CORRUPTION, credit unions, currency, education, Eviction, foreclosure, foreign relations, GTC | Honor, healthcare, inflation, interest rates, Investor, medical insurance, Medical Treatment, Mortgage, Obama, politics, securities fraud | Tagged: , , , , , , , , | 5 Comments »

Mortgage Meltdown and Credit Crisis: News and Comment 4-2-08

Posted on April 2, 2008 by Neil Garfield

U.S. economy in ‘very difficult period,’ Bernanke says

By Greg Robb

Last update: 9:30 a.m. EDT April 2, 2008

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) – The outlook for U.S. growth has worsened since January and the possibility of a recession can’t be ruled out, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said Wednesday. “It not appears likely that real gross domestic product will not grow much, if at all, over the first half of 2008 and could even contract slightly,” Bernanke said in testimony prepared for the Joint Economic Committee of Congress. “Clearly, the U.S. economy is going through a very difficult period.” His testimony supports the view that the Fed is not done cutting interest rates. The central bank has lowered its target overnight lending rate to 2.25% from 5.25% last fall, the largest percentage decline on record. Bernanke suggested the central bank is slowing down the pace of its rate cuts. “Much necessary economic and financial adjustment has already taken place, and monetary and fiscal policies are in train that should support a return to growth in the second half of this year and next year,” he said. Inflation remains a concern, he noted, and some signs indicate that the public expects prices to continue rising. 

EDITOR’S NOTE: State Department Overview of Global economic transactions needed, along with a department of trained, serious, non-political economists who can report the actual effects and trends of global commerce on our foreign relations.

 

  1. According to the Secretary of State and the National Security Council, counterfeiting undermines currency and constitutes an ACT OF WAR if sanctioned or promoted by one government to the detriment of another. 
  2. By promoting the expansion of “money” supply through the latest “funny money schemes” of Wall Street, the United States has been the source of counterfeiting “cash equivalents” which are currently only part of the way through the process of undermining the financial strength, viability, social services and credibility of local and federal governments around the world. 
  3. These cash equivalents (derivatives) are the modern day equivalent of counterfeiting. 
  4. While it is not likely that a military response is on the horizon, it IS likely that economic and political responses will be coming from countries that include our friends and allies. 
  5. The effect on our foreign relations is immeasurable right now. 
  6. The effect on our own economy is understated intentionally by government reporting agencies: food prices in Arizona are up 19% (demonstrating that the true rate of inflation of geometrically higher than what the government is reporting). 
  7. Food and oil and other necessities are rising sharply in the U.S. because the dollar is sinking to new lows every month. Citizens must be made aware that the economic policies and choices we make, right down to individual purchases at the grocery store or other retail locations has a direct impact on the statement we are making in our foreign relations.
  8. Paulson’s “sweeping” proposals do nothing except sweep the problems under a rug too small to hold the debris. 
  9. What must be included in any plan for changes in how the government plays referee in in the marketplace (i.e., regulation), is a new division of the State department that assesses the impact of global economic commerce and recommends policy adjustments to heal and promote our relationships with sovereign nations. 

Swiss finance minister reportedly expects tax shortfall due to UBS

Switzerland’s finance minister Hans-Rudolf Merz expects the country to receive 1 billion Swiss francs, or $1 billion, less in taxes for 2007 as a result of the crisis at UBS AG (UBS: UBS Ag he told Swiss daily Tages-Anzeiger in an interview published Wednesday. See full story

By Polya Lesova MarketWatch 4/2/2008 9:06:00 AM Crude-oil futures rise modestly as traders look to data on U.S. petroleum inventories and eye strength in the dollar. See full story 

[EDITOR’S NOTE: Somehow people must be educated to understand the relationship between a weak dollar caused by excessive borrowing and flooding the marketplace with “funny money” and the price of gas at the pump. As the value of U.S. currency declines, more of it is required to purchase anything on the world market, including oil. If OPEC follows through on converting from dollars to Euros the effect will be magnified and the price of gas at the pump could easily exceed $10 per gallon same time next year. Wake up, America!]

Wider access to high-risk currency trading lures more investors

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By Gergana Koleva MarketWatch4/1/2008 7:33:00 PM

With over $3 trillion worth of foreign currencies changing hands every day, a growing number of retail investors who seek a boost to their portfolios and a hedge for the falling dollar are viewing the high liquidity of foreign exchange trading as a tonic for troubled times. See full story

National City mulling deal with KeyCorp: report

BOSTON (MarketWatch) — National City Corp. (NCC:

National City Corporation which has seen its stock battered due to its exposure to troubled loans and softening real estate markets, is contemplating a plan to sell itself to KeyCorp (KEY: KeyCorp (New) The Wall Street Journal reported Wednesday.

Fannie Mae revises standards for mortgages: report

Fannie Mae (FNM: Fannie Mae has told lenders it will require a credit score of at least 580 for most individual loans as part of the latest move to make its standards more stringent for mortgages it buys or guarantees, according to a report Wednesday in The Wall Street Journal. See full story 

[EDITOR’S NOTE: Talk about locking the barn door after all the horses are gone! What is needed besides changes in future regulation is a solution now, today, to the massive credit crisis which now extends to all new loans including auto loans. 

 

  • The solution does NOT lie in piecemeal, patchwork of rule changes by different agencies that will conflict with each other, congressional legislation that will conflict with other federal and state legislation, or bailouts of certain players because they are either more important or less “culpable” in the eyes of the beholder. 
  • What is needed is a fast consensus of ALL the players, agencies and leaders from across the spectrum from homeowners and borrowers, through lenders, appraisers, mortgage brokers, investment bankers, retail securities sales, and investors in derivatives to 
  • STOP foreclosures and evictions, 
  • KEEP homeowners in homes unless they can’t even afford to maintain them, 
  • RESTORE the balance sheet of investment bankers and investors, and 
  • HEAL the wounded dollar and staunch the bleeding — by reducing payments on al forms of excessive debt (caused either by artificially — i.e., manipulated — higher housing prices during 2001-2006, or caused by the nearly $1 trillion drain on credit card revolving debt that was promoted in every conceivable way despite interest rates so high that any financial planner or economist could tell you that the average person would NEVER pay it all back]. 
  • IMMUNIZE EVERYONE from civil and criminal action to get their cooperation (yes, Amnesty. It is more important to save our economy and standing in the world than to see a few “examples” in jail, or millions of people out on the street. We need no homeless people not a surge in their number. We need stable, rising house prices, not a view with “no end in sight.”).
  • EDUCATE the American public that this crisis transcends ideology and politics. Whatever your feeling about “entitlements”, personal responsibility and suffering the consequences, we are all bearing the brunt of this crisis every time we go to buy food, gas or other necessities. We are all bearing the brunt of this every time we expect social services like education, fire, police or paramedical help — and they are diminished because the local treasury has been depleted by losses in CDOs/CMOs and by inflation. We are all putting the burden on our children, grandchildren and great-grandchildren for spending money we didn’t need to (like over paying for medical care and drugs compared to all other countries and going to wars to protect an interest in oil which should have been abandoned long ago as a fuel source)

Obama comes closest in his proposals. But even he has failed to grasp all the horns of the bull]

Manhattan apartment sales fall most in 18 years as buyers wait

Manhattan apartment sales plunged the most in 18 years last quarter as buyers faced the prospect of a recession and job cuts at Wall Street securities firms. See full story at Bloomberg.com

Paulson says Treasury `flexible’ on housing measures

Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson indicated the Bush administration is willing to consider congressional plans to stem foreclosures by expanding government guarantees for mortgages. “I think you will continue to see flexibility as we learn and go forward,” Paulson said in an interview with Bloomberg Television in Beijing. See full story at Bloomberg.com

Lehman in market abuse claim

Lehman Brothers (LEH: Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc  on Tuesday said it had sent information to the Securities and Exchange Commission about possible abusive short-selling in its shares in recent days. Erin Callan, Lehman chief financial officer, said the SEC was examining whether hedge funds acted in concert to drive down the bank’s share price in the days following the near collapse of Bear Stearns. Such behavior could constitute market manipulation, subject to civil and criminal sanctions. See full story at FT.com

Filed under: bubble, CDO, community banks, CORRUPTION, credit unions, currency, education, Eviction, foreclosure, foreign relations, GTC | Honor, healthcare, inflation, interest rates, Investor, Mortgage, Obama, politics, securities fraud | Tagged: , , , , , , | Leave a comment »

Mortgage Meltdown: Remedial Legislation

Posted on February 27, 2008 by Neil Garfield

Mortgage Meltdown Remedial Legislation

Barney Frank has a good idea that will work. Mortgage notes must be reduced without penalty to borrowers, and of course continue the tax exemption for short sale. 

Cooperation will be needed by FDIC, Federal Reserve, SEC, FASB, IRS, Controller of Currency and Treasury Department. 

I would add the following AFTER reducing the mortgage by a flat percentage (because it will take too long to figure out 10 million mortgages on a case by case basis):

 

  1. Contingent reverse amortization (betting that housing prices will recover particularly in the event that this plan is put into effect). 75-25 in favor of homeowner up to recovering value of home at time of purchase. Then 75-25 in favor of Lender over purchase price until full value of mortgage is covered. Encourages homeowners to stay in their homes instead of abandoning them. Covers 8.8 million homes instead of 1 million.
  2. Allow contingent equity to reported as actual capital for lenders. Allows capital requirements and reserves to be met and allows further lending, increasing market liquidity in the credit and money markets.
  3. Allow contingent equity to be reported as footnote capital for investment banking. Allow financial institutions to recover write-downs and avoid additional write-downs.
  4. Allow contingent equity to be capital for CDO holders, including where used as collateral.
  5. Use flat relief percentage unless hardship is demonstrated. HUD has hearings. Suggested decrease in mortgage debt 20%.
  6. Use Fed Funds rate plus 1% as interest rate, 30 year amortization fixed. 3 point service fee that can be paid up front or 5 points if added to note. This applies to all mortgages. Opt-out provisions can apply for those homeowners who wish to opt out. Many will do so rather than go through the hassle of adjustment, even though most of the work will be done by lender.
  7. 1 year moratorium on all foreclosures on primary residential dwellings, giving time for mortgages to be converted.
  8. 2 month moratorium on payments of principal and interest on primary residential dwellings. Insurance and Taxes must still be paid. Borrowers given up to an additional 6 months to bring their escrow accounts for insurance and taxes up to date.
  9. After 1 year moratorium, foreclosures resume only on those homes where the mortgage note has been reset, as above, and borrower has defaulted. 
  10.  After 10 years original mortgage and note reinstated, adjusted for payments as above.
  11.  On second homes provide relief, by half of the above, and after 5 years original terms reinstated. 
  12.  Credit cards: Remedial cap on interest at 15%
  13.  Credit Cards: If interest rate is already 15% or under, reduce the rate by 25%.
  14.  Cap overdraft, bank fees etc. at 60% of current industry rates. 
  15.  Payday advance: cap fees, costs and interest at 10% per month. Require payroll deduction for repayment over maximum of 10 weeks.
  16.  Establish aggressive regulatory environment wherein the ultimate holders of risk (CDO owners) are educated as to actual quality of the mortgage-backed securities. This would include indexes identifying subprime loans, subprime borrowers, and various levels of prime borrowers statistically, so that ratings agencies, insurers, investors, fund managers, CFO’s and Treasurers can properly evaluate the risk of the investment. 
  17. This uses full information to allow market forces to dictate the credit liquidity offered to home buyers and other consumer debt. In other words, if the buyers of CDOs had been told the truth about these mortgage backed securities, and other aggregate derivative investments, neither the ratings  nor the demand for them would have been nearly as robust. 
  18. The meltdown would never have occurred. instead the incentive was to put out as many mortgage loans as possible, artificially inflated prices, because the lenders, closing agents, appraisers etc., were all incentivized to appease the confusion and worriers of the borrower and get the borrower to sign papers.

Filed under: ATM, bubble, Bush, CDO, community banks, credit unions, currency, Eviction, foreclosure, GTC | Honor, inflation, interest rates, Investor, Mortgage, Obama, politics, securities fraud | Tagged: , , , , , , | 2 Comments »

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