Most U.S. homes are worth less than before the crash

You can’t blame a homeowner in Fresno, Calif., for viewing the thriving metropolis to its northwest with both envy and dismay.

While San Francisco home values have surged since the recession, Fresno’s housing market is stuck in a rut. Less than 3% of homes in the city and its environs have returned to their pre-recession peak, according to a new study from Trulia. Median home values are a teeth-clenching $78,000 below their pre-recession peak.

The difference between the two California markets helps explain a key dynamic of U.S. housing a decade after the foreclosure crisis. Popular measures of the landscape, like S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index and the FHFA House Price Index, show the market has recovered to levels last seen before the housing market went bust. But according to Trulia, this isn’t the whole, significantly bleaker picture.

Nationally, just one in three homes are worth more now than they were at their peak. While tech hubs in the Bay Area and Denver and job centers like Dallas or Nashville have seen home values explode past earlier highs, there are more losers than winners when you look across the country, Trulia’s analysis shows. And it’s really bad news if you live in Las Vegas, Tucson — or Fresno.

Many of the losers aren’t just losing — they’re getting trounced. There were 28 metros where fewer than 10% of homes have recovered their value since the bubble burst. Las Vegas has seen less than 1% of its homes returning to or surpassing what they were worth before the recession. The median sales price there is down a full $91,000 from its peak.

“It’s a reflection of just how well a metro area has recovered, broadly speaking,” said Ralph McLaughlin, chief economist at Trulia, adding that his findings largely correlate with other measures of metro-level growth, such as gains in income and total population.

As a result, it’s tempting to view these results through the prism of the 2016 election. Many of the metropolitan areas where home values lag the most are Rust Belt towns with little prospect for an immediate comeback, or Sun Belt cities whose peak home values were a product of the bubble that preceded the collapse.

McLaughlin says a ZIP-code-level analysis offers a more nuanced view of the haves and have-nots. In much of the middle of the country, cities have stagnated while less populated regions lead the recovery. While it’s true coastal markets have experienced the lion’s share of appreciation, the majority of homes in pricey markets like New York, Los Angeles, Silver Spring, Md., and Fairfield County, Conn., are still worth less than a decade ago.

To be sure, Trulia’s research is based on its own estimates of home values, while the big indices are based on actual sales. Other research suggests a hot economy gives rural workers more choice, causing an outflow of potential employees to better jobs, often in the cities or on the coasts, potentially speeding a decline in home value elsewhere.

McLaughlin offers two more takeaways from his research. The high percentage of homes that have yet to recover their peak values shows that any talk of a housing bubble is premature. Also, the slow recovery may play a key role in a theme bedeviling local housing markets: There were fewer homes for sale in March than at any point since 2012, according to McLaughlin. The lack of full recovery may be causing some homeowners to delay listing their homes.

“If people are aware of what their house was worth 10 or 12 years ago, and the house is worth less now, they may be holding back,” he said. “They may be waiting, like you might with a stock, for it to get to a certain price — and then they will unload.”

5 Responses

  1. To Wally, same here. Living in limbo did 6 years. Can’t get my elected officials to call me. Their staff thinks Florida Foreclosure laws are federal. I have her a peice of my mind. She says then I didn’t mean all Foreclosure law lol. Yes my house is getting run Down too. We are holding on waiting. I think there stood be a law how many years you can sit on Foreclosure and nothing. The bank/servicer should make repairs if they think the houses if they think they are is their homes instead of letting tryin rot, like our homes are. Prayers to all my friends going through this horrible stealing of our homes

  2. I should add to my info above that DBNTC waived an alleged note in the air at the oral arguement seventeen months after they filed the case but never filed this alleged note with the court and refused to have it fully forensically tested. Fought off my camera man and left in five minutes after the battle to have it tested fully you see on the video.

  3. In my case alleged DBNTC is asking for twice the amount of the mortgage without any proof of why. Claiming they do not have to prove how they came up with the figures. Undated endorsed copy of a note and one undated unendorsed copy of the note. Fraud assignment and a affidavit from the lawyer of the firm representing the alleged DBNTC. Claiming I waived my discovery rights. Which I did not. Never filing the authentic note. Now in the Supreme court under request for Petition for review. If I lose my home it will be a miscarriage of justice all started from a modification from hell. Unfortunately like millions of homeowners. These are the bullet points in my case I have noted for myself.
    No Standing and Lack of Subject Matter Jurisdiction:
    We have a good case……..Bullet points I did not sue DBNTC but Chase WAMU and Long Beach Mortgage.
    My attorney argued during oral argument DBNTC did not submit a general ledger proving the amount of the debt and questioned what happened to the Modification payments the Ericksons made [June -October]?.
    Absolutely nothing but an undated unendorsed copy of the note and deed of Trust to Long Beach were submitted at the start of the complaint January 3, 2014.. Mase that clear to the judges. And a second “copy” of the note admitted seventeen months later with an endorsed undated note. No authentic note filed to date and we objected to the authenticity of the note held up in court and never filed with the court to this date. Will Eidsen attorney for DBNTC is the only one with affidavits stating he has personal knowledge and not under sworn testiony in the oral argument claiming he was holding the note but refused to a complete forensic testing of the note.
    My forensic testor told me he talked with Will Eidsen before the oral argument began and they locked my witness out of the room and left the conference room in less than ten minutes without a complete test being done. On video!

    All fraudulent documents and claims were added in a Supplemental Complaint in 2015. Seventeen months after the start of the complaint.
    Will Eidsen’s affidavit was signed a year and a half after the case was filed. Not filed at the start of the case either. They submitted nothing but an “undated COPY” of the note. And copy of the DOT in Long Beach Name. Nothing else!
    No authentic note
    No copy of the pro se case to evidence proof of Res Judicata
    No affidavit from Will Eidsen attorney for DBNTC without personal knowledge and seventeen months after the start of the case.
    No assignment of the note only the copy of the DOT to Long Beach Mortgage.
    No general ledger to prove history of payments and being in default to prove debt .
    Ericksons never waived our rights to discovery nor claims of no standing.
    If the pro se case had been submitted the evidence the pro se case was dissmissed accepting an entirely different UNDATED COPY of the note copy emphasised not the authentic note.
    No evidence DBNTC is the party to the case, or exist, did not even know where they were registered to be doing business. Only a screen shot of a listing on the OCC web page. No registration number or proof of being licensed to be foreclosing. No proof of retainer
    We cited from DBNTC v Johnston case
    WHY NOTE INDORSMENT MUST BE DATED! and the Toledo Supreme court case just out of Hawii.

  4. This doesn’t even count the time-based deterioration of homes due to long-term uncertainty as to their disposition. Deferred maintenance. After nearly 10 years, my place is about to rot in place. Another year or two, and it’ll become unlivable.

  5. Reblogged this on Mario Kenny.

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