Livinglies's Weblog

 

Mortgage Meltdown Consequences — New Money, Old Money and New Dynamics — 

Cashless ATM, “second chance bank accounts” and other services auger well for Small Banks and Credit Unions.

 

The simple fact is that there isn’t any small bank who can’t provide the same services to any type of customers that a large one can. And if States would start depositing their entitlement and other money and revenue into state chartered local community banks, they would regulate their own state and local economies by insuring that reinvestment through loans would be on the local level with local deposits and a return to common sense in lending. It would also score political points for anyone running for local or statewide office. 

 

News from the Bureau of Engraving and Printing in Washington D.C. (BEP) — they are going to change the size of the various denominations of U.S. currency. There are also changes coming to prevent the Supernote coming out of North Korea which uses the same paper and managed to get the same printing presses that the BEP uses. They have been flooding the market with counterfeit currency quite successfully and the trend seems to be on the increase although, according to government reports, if they can be believed, the problem is not yet a large one.

 

A clean-out of the ATM cash locations will start to occur when the new bills come out since 85% of the cash terminals in most portfolios are unprofitable anyway and the operators will not be inclined to spend more money on a new cash dispenser for a location that isn’t making money anyway. This will present a new opportunity for those who permit or operate Cashless ATM terminal locations (Community banks, Credit Unions and Independent Sales Organizations). 

Networks like NYCE, AFFN, American Express, COOP and CU24 that allow “scrip” terminals (A/k/a Cashless ATMs) will be the prime beneficiaries of this trend. Cirrus and PLus who merely look away are likely, especially now that they are public, to specifically encourage the use of Cashless ATM after years of “opposing” it on paper. 

Companies like SMARTBanks (which has long-dominated the world of cashless ATMs) are likely to become major players in financial services as their volume once again mushrooms and their offering of services continues to diversify. It seems that with every step, the financial institutions that seek to block the ability of the small bank or credit union competitor cause another event that eventually comes up and hits them in the face, like a rake stepped upon in the field. 

Add to that the availability of “second chance checking” for those who don’t qualify to open a regular checking account and overdraft privileges on these strictly electronic bank accounts, and you have a prescription for a resounding come-back of the small financial institution and the death-knell of the once mighty giant players. 

 

“Second chance checking” places the small financial institution squarely in the path of the giants (who are now otherwise occupied with saving their skins) seizing the opportunity to provide services to the “unbanked” or under-banked population. Overdraft privileges allows small institutions to partner with -non-predatory lending vendors and offer a smart and socially acceptable way of providing short-term emergency loans placing them squarely in the way of growth of Payday loans.

 

Adding to this are world events that certain increase the risk if not the certainty that the dominance of the U.S. dollar in world currency is coming to an end, and that with constant devaluation of the dollar and inflation, merchants are starting to demand other currencies. There is even a tendency in foreign markets that will be vastly exacerbated by the advent of the new money being printed — where older wrinkled dollars are being devalued on the spot in favor of newer, crisper ones. 

 

In short, the mortgage meltdown with its CDO/CMOs, (really financial derivative breakdown, including over $500 trillion in derivative issues over the years) which undermined the confidence in American financial markets, is likely to cause a not-so subtle shift in the willingness to accept U.S. currency for payment of non-tax debt. And dollar reserves held by central bankers around the world are likely to reflect this shift by lowering the amount of dollar reserves and increasing the reserves of other currencies, especially the Euro. 

 

In short, people going to an ATM will be looking for alternatives. Even if the twenty dollar bill is preserved as to size in order to save the cash dispensing ATM terminal, the level of distrust as tot he quality and buying power of that money is likely to cause something of a shift in consumer and merchant acceptance of old dollars or even the new dollars, causing merchants to keep more than one currency in their drawers — old U.S. currency, new U.S. Currency and probably the Euro. 

 

I might add that regulatory influence European Central Bank will be probably vastly increase with respect control of financial markets all over the world including the United States where we have always jealously guarded our sovereignty but now surrendered it to a few financial “wizards” who undermined the position of the U.S., in the world at the worst possible time in the worst possible way with the worst possible outcomes for many borrowers, lenders, underwriters, auditors, investment bankers, and investors. 

 

Even if the twenty dollar bill is kept the same size there will be a run to the teller windows of banks, the drawer of merchants, and anywhere else people can lay their hands on the new currency which appears more sound. After all, since we are not on any gold standard or other back-up to the value of currency, the ONLY thing maintaining the dollar’s value is the confidence people have in it. 

 

It therefore follows that most operators of Cash ATMs are going to experience either a drop in the use of the ATM or a complete end to their use if the size of the twenty dollar bill changes — until they install a new cash dispenser. But even if a new cash dispenser is installed, merchants, as in New York City and other parts of the country are encouraging payment with Euros. The current ATM electronic and mechanical infrastructure is not sell suited at present to handle multiple currencies or multiple denominations in different sizes.

The ONLY infrastructure available to handle the versatility of demand for “money” is the merchant’s cash drawer, which will not only inure to the benefit of the operators of cashless ATM machines, but to the benefit of the merchants themselves. It is ONLY by getting a receipt and going to a live cashier that the demands of the customer will be met, at least in the short-term. 

A clean-out of the ATM cash locations will start to occur when the new bills come out since 85% of the cash terminals in most portfolios are unprofitable anyway and the operators will not be inclined to spend more money on a new cash dispenser for a location that isn’t making money anyway. 

This will present a new opportunity for those who permit or operate Cashless ATM terminal locations. Networks like NYCE, AFFN, American Express, COOP and CU24 that allow “scrip” terminals (A/k/a Cashless ATMs) will be the prime beneficiaries of this trend. Cirrus and Plus who merely look away are likely, especially now that they are public, to specifically encourage the use of Cashless ATM after years of “opposing” it on paper. 

Companies like SMARTBanks which has dominated the world of cash ATMs are likely to become major players in financial services as their volume once again mushrooms. It seems that with every step, the financial institutions that seek to block the ability of the small bank or credit union competitor eventually comes up and hits them in the face, like a rake stepped upon in the field. 

With the large financial institutions all in some sort of trouble now and the fact that the small ones were barred from playing in the CDO world (and therefore face no write-offs or liability), the time is ripe for small banks and credit unions to reassert their superiority in numbers, customer service and their ability to field more ATM locations than their largest competitors. Cashless ATMs cost, even now, less than 1/3 of the smallest cash dispensing countertop Cash dispensing ATM and cost 5% of the operating costs of the cash dispensers. Things are changing.

The good news for the consumer is that their convenience fees will go down or be eliminated in greater numbers because of the number of small banks offering surcharge-free access to a growing number of what the NYCE network calls “Point of Banking (a/k/a Cashless ATM a/k/a scrip terminals). 

 

The bad news is only for the banking giants who will see their ATM fee income and monthly statements income decline as more and more people gravitate back to their local banks. As depositors move and loan business moves and decentralization takes hold of the marketplace, supplanting what was a government-sponsored hegemony of a handful of banks, the flimsy foundation on which the giant financial services business model was built will crack and crumble. 

 

Add to that the availability of “second chance checking” for those who don’t qualify to open a regular checking account and overdraft privileges on these strictly electronic bank accounts, and you have a prescription for a resounding come-back of the small financial institution and the death-knell of the once mighty giant players. 

 

All these services and more are now available to any financial institution to offer customers who walk in through their door, through the proliferation of third party vendors who are willing to set up, sell, monitor, score risk and even take the risk on these accounts. It is the dawning of a new age, where the syndication and derivative schemes of the old fashioned giants are replaced by a better market system for distribution of credit, wealth and prosperity. Free-market enthusiasts should be excited.

 

Filed under: ATM, bubble, CDO, community banks, credit unions, currency, GTC | Honor, interest rates, Investor, Mortgage, Obama, politics | Tagged: ATM, Bureau of Engraving and Printing, Cashless ATM, community banks, financial institutions, Pointof Banking, Scrip, Second chance checking, unbanked |